5. Basins — roll all 16 cells and draw the map of fates · Dr. Seok's Cancer-Cell Digital Twin, First Steps

Now for something that really deserves the name digital twin. We build every possible cell and watch every one of them to the end.

You could not do this at a bench. Making all 16 on/off combinations of four genes and observing each would take months. Inside a computer it takes a hundredth of a second.

The set of initial states that flow into the same attractor is its basin of attraction.

The size of a basin is how common that fate is. A large basin catches you from almost anywhere; a small one rarely does.

Four attractors came out, and only one of them is cancer.

Python Runs in your browser

import bn

net = bn.mini()
land = net.landscape()           # roll all 16
land.summary()

Of the 16 initial states, only two digits decide the fate.

Python Runs in your browser

import bn

net = bn.mini()
land = net.landscape()

print("which initial states go to cancer")
print("-" * 46)
for s in land.states_with("cancer"):
    print("  ", net.show(s))

print()
print("See what they have in common? Only the ones with DDX54=1 and p53=0.")
print("The initial values of CD47 and Cancer_Growth make no difference at all —")
print("the rules overwrite them immediately.")

Hold on to that 25% baseline.

Python Runs in your browser

import bn

net = bn.mini()
land = net.landscape()

n = land.total
for name, cnt in land.phenotypes().items():
    bar = "#" * round(cnt / n * 40)
    print(f"{name:<10} {cnt:>3}/{n}  ({cnt/n*100:5.1f}%)  {bar}")

print()
print(f"{land.count('cancer')} states end in cancer — this is the baseline before treatment.")
print("From lesson 11 on, changing this number is the whole goal.")

🎮 Map of fates

Each of the 16 cells is one initial state. Press one and it shows you where that cell flows.

Cells of the same colour belong to the same basin.

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🤔 Check yourself

What is a basin of attraction?

🤔 Check yourself

Why does CD47's initial value not affect the final fate in the mini circuit?

🤔 Check yourself

Why must 'the basin is 25%' not be read as 'a 25% chance of cancer'?